What We Learned This Week

Tesla (Stock) Back in Vogue: Tesla stock has staged a remarkable turnaround. After a dismal start to the year, it has rallied more than 85% since its April lows and is now positive for 2025. What’s striking is that this rebound hasn’t been driven by fundamentals alone. Auto sales have been underwhelming, EV adoption has slowed, and Chinese manufacturers continue to intensify competition overseas.

The bigger shift has been sentiment. Earlier in the year, CEO Elon Musk’s high-profile involvement in government budget issues weighed heavily on Tesla’s brand, injecting political divisiveness and raising questions about where his attention was focused. Since stepping back, Musk has been less in the spotlight, and the stock has benefitted as the noise has died down. Analysts have also cheered Tesla’s proposed revised pay plan, worth up to $1 trillion if all performance targets are met, which they see as reinforcing Musk’s long-term commitment to the company. More recently, Musk purchased an additional $1 billion worth of Tesla stock on the open market, a rare move that suggests confidence, even if insider buying isn’t always a reliable near-term signal.

Still, little has changed fundamentally. The company’s near-term results remain uneven, margins are pressured, and the EV market is facing headwinds. Tesla remains a stock best owned if you believe in Musk’s long-term vision for robotics and AI. In the short term, it’s as unpredictable as ever.

TikTok Deal Nearing: It looks like we may finally be getting closer to a deal on TikTok’s U.S. operations. President Trump has again extended the deadline for an agreement that would require TikTok’s Chinese parent to divest, but this time the outlines of a framework are starting to take shape and key players have emerged. Oracle is expected to play a central role, managing much of TikTok’s U.S. data storage and operations. As TikTok’s current U.S. cloud provider, Oracle would house user data on its Texas servers, a potentially significant win for a company already enjoying strong momentum.

Other likely partners include private equity firm Silver Lake and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, though details remain fluid and additional players may still join. The mechanics of the transition are not yet clear, but reports suggest that within 30-45 days U.S. users may be required to migrate to a new, U.S.-only app. The negotiations are entwined with broader U.S.-China trade talks, with Trump expected to discuss terms directly with President Xi on Friday. Given TikTok’s outsized influence as arguably the most powerful social media platform in the world, the outcome (and which firms gain a foothold in the deal) could prove highly valuable.

Waymo Teams Up with Lyft in Nashville: Waymo announced this week that it will partner with Lyft to launch its autonomous ridesharing service in Nashville next year. Lyft will handle end-to-end fleet management for Waymo’s vehicles, and riders will be able to book trips through either the Lyft or Waymo apps. The move is notable given Waymo’s existing partnerships with Uber in Atlanta and Austin. By now teaming up with Uber’s rival, Waymo appears to be diversifying its partnerships to avoid over-reliance on a single platform, while giving Lyft a much-needed boost.

Uber remains the dominant U.S. ridesharing player, with a market cap north of $200 billion, more than 25 times Lyft’s size. Still, gaining exposure to the autonomous rideshare market could be an important shot in the arm for Lyft as it fights to stay relevant. It’s early days, and competition looms from Tesla, Amazon, and others, but the companies that combine autonomous technology with scale, infrastructure, and consumer trust will likely come out on top. This space is only going to get more interesting in the years ahead.