What We Learned This Week

Nvidia & China Export Breakthrough: Positive news out of Nvidia this week as the company looks poised to resume shipments of its H20 GPUs to China, a meaningful win amid ongoing pressure from U.S. export controls. Back in April, the Trump administration carried forward the Biden-era restrictions on high-performance chip exports, requiring companies like Nvidia to obtain special licenses to sell into China. But this week, CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump, reportedly discussing everything from global semiconductor supply chains to onshoring efforts and the U.S.’s leadership in AI. Huang has been a vocal supporter of domestic job creation and tech investment, and the meeting appears to have gone well - administration officials signaled that Nvidia will be granted the licenses needed to restart exports.

That’s good news, considering China represents a massive growth opportunity. Nvidia’s market share there has reportedly dropped by nearly half since the restrictions took effect, opening the door for local competitors. Regaining that ground is crucial. The company also introduced a China-specific chip that complies with export rules, a smart move to ensure continued relevance in the region. More broadly, the developments suggest potential progress in U.S.–China trade talks, with signs of easing around export controls and access to rare earth materials. As for the stock, it jumped another 5% on the news, hitting a new 1-year high. While the positive momentum is real, shares have long since recovered from the April selloff, so this may be more of a long-term strategic win than a near-term value buy.

GM’s Shift in Strategy: GM announced this week that it’s expanding production of gas-powered SUVs and pickup trucks in Michigan to meet sustained demand for models like the Cadillac Escalade and GMC Sierra. These vehicles are already built at other U.S. plants, and this move is aimed at adding additional capacity. The expansion is part of a broader $4 billion domestic manufacturing initiative GM outlined in June, largely in response to new tariffs on imported vehicles and parts introduced by the Trump administration.

What stands out here is that GM’s first move under this new investment plan wasn’t to expand EV production, but rather double down on combustion engines. This marks a subtle shift from the company’s earlier commitment to go fully electric by 2035, a goal it was among the first to champion when EV optimism was at its peak. Since then, the landscape has changed. While EV sales are still growing, adoption has been uneven, particularly in the premium segments, where resale values and consumer appetite remain weak. With more automakers dialing back their EV rollouts and the recent spending bill eliminating the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, it’s clear the market is recalibrating. EVs still have a future, but how they fit into it (and how fast) is a story that’s still being written.

Inflation & Tariff Watch: Inflation came in flat last month, with both consumer and producer price data showing virtually no change from the prior month. That outcome stands in contrast to warnings that Trump-era tariff policies would lead to broad-based price spikes. While there are some signs of upward pressure in categories like apparel and household goods, those were largely offset by declines elsewhere, leaving little clear evidence of a major inflationary push tied directly to tariffs.

It’s a mildly reassuring outcome for now, helping keep fears of a sharp reacceleration in check. But with global trade negotiations still unfolding and the threat of additional tariff hikes on the table, it’s too soon to say how things will evolve. As for interest rates, this report gives the Fed little reason to accelerate any policy shift. For the time being, we remain firmly in wait-and-see mode.