What We Learned This Week

Rare Signs of Life: Boeing got a much-needed win last week after the White House awarded it the contract to develop the Pentagon’s next-generation fighter jet, edging out Lockheed Martin. The aircraft, part of the NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) program, will replace the aging F-22 Raptor and marks a significant milestone for Boeing’s struggling defense segment, which accounts for nearly a third of its revenue but has been weighed down by unprofitable contracts. Beyond the financial upside, this is a critical vote of confidence following years of reputational damage tied to the 737 Max incidents.

There was more good news: Boeing’s CFO suggested that cash flow may come in stronger than expected this quarter. Still, major challenges remain. A federal judge has ordered Boeing to trial this summer over the Max crashes after the previous judge rejected an earlier plea deal, thus placing the case under the incoming administration’s jurisdiction. The outcome will be pivotal in determining whether Boeing can truly stabilize and scale production. As messy as the last few years have been, there may finally be the foundation for a turnaround—if they can avoid more self-inflicted setbacks.

Nike Has Become the Underdog: Nike’s latest earnings weren’t a disaster—but the outlook was tough. While this past quarter came in slightly better than expected, forward guidance called for a much steeper sales decline and 4–5 points of gross margin compression next quarter. The primary driver is the early phase of new CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan: revamping product lines, rebuilding retail relationships, and clearing underperforming inventory through steep discounting. That reset takes time—and it’s going to weigh on results in the short term.

China remains another challenge, with continued weakness in demand and growing competition making it a drag on overall revenue. Hill has hit the ground running, including efforts like the new Skims partnership to reinvigorate the women’s segment—but there’s still a long road ahead. The brand strength is a real asset, but the execution needs to follow quickly.

Dollar Tree on its Own Again: Dollar Tree announced this week that it intends to sell its struggling Family Dollar chain to a group of private equity buyers for $1 billion—a significant markdown from the $9 billion it paid for the business back in 2015. This marks the end of a nearly decade-long effort to integrate Family Dollar into its broader operations, a move that ultimately failed to deliver. While the combination may have looked logical from the outside—two discount retailers under one roof—the underlying business models were fundamentally different. Dollar Tree built its brand around fixed-price, discretionary “treasure hunt” shopping, while Family Dollar catered to lower-income consumers with a focus on essentials and thinner margins, making it far more sensitive to inflation and macroeconomic pressure.

The acquisition, intended to expand Dollar Tree’s reach and compete more effectively with Dollar General, instead created confusion among employees, customers, and suppliers. Despite efforts to find alignment, the integration never clicked and ultimately dragged down performance across the broader business. Sometimes scale isn’t the solution, and this was a painful reminder of that. With the distraction now behind them, Dollar Tree can finally move forward as a more focused company—and it will be interesting to see how the core business performs without the weight of Family Dollar holding it back.